buy sell hold 2021



Alpha Picks: Adding OCBC, LREIT, AZTECH and SMM While Taking Profit On GENS

Our Alpha Picks portfolio easily surpassed the STI by 8.0ppt on an equal-weighted basis in Mar 23. For 1Q23, our portfolio rose 9.1%, materially outpacing the STI’s 0.2% gain. For Apr 23, we add OCBC, LREIT, AZTECH and SMM. We have also taken profit on GENS as it has done well since its inclusion and is close to our target price. Our Alpha Picks portfolio has beaten the STI in 12 out of the past 13 months. 


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Banking – Malaysia

Loans Growth Partly Boosted By Seasonality

Loans growth improved marginally to 5.1% in Feb 23 (Jan 23: 4.9%). However, the stronger growth is partly seasonal in nature due to the different CNY base effect. We are maintaining our 4.5% loans growth assumption for 2023, a moderation from the 5.7% growth in 2022. The sector’s current risk-to-reward profile remains balanced with pedestrian PBT growth of 5% offset by relatively attractive valuations (-1SD) and dividend yields (5%). Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.


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Tianjin Da Ren Tang (US$1.53, up 4 cents) released its latest 4Q22 results and reported that it’s revenue for the financial year ended 31 December 2022 (“FY2022”) was approximately RMB 8,249 million, an increase of approximately RMB 1,342 million, or 19%, as compared to RMB 6,907 million for the financial year ended 31 December 2021 (“FY2021”).
The increase in revenue as compared to the corresponding period last year was primarily because of the increase in sales revenue from major product categories. 

TDRT’s results was in line with our expectations, but dividends more than doubled on a yoy basis as TDRT proposed RMB1.2 vs RMB0.5 cts/ share last year, rendering TDRT to trade at 11.1% yield despite share price having appreciated 53% since our last call. We remain optimistic in TDRT as it continues to grow post opening up of China’s economy to achieve
higher market share and earnings growth while the company is going through a period of reform. At US$ 1.53, market cap of TDRT is US$1.6bln, FY23F P/E is 10.4x, P/B is 1.2x. With TDRT in Singapore still trading around
25% of its A-share counterpart listed in China, we continue maintain a BUY on TDRT Pharmaceutical with an increased target price of US$1.88 from previous US$1.60.


Civmec Limited (S$0.685, up 0.5 cents) announced that it has been awarded about A$100 million worth of new contracts to carry out manufacturing, construction and maintenance activities for the resources sector. This brings its total order book to A$1.2 billion as of 30 March 2023. 

At S$0.685, Civmec is capitalized at S$344.1mln and trades at 1.0x PB and forward PE of 7.0x. Dividend yield stands at 5.2%. Tendering activity continues to remain strong across all operating sectors with good progress into the green energy space and maintenance
projects. Order book has increased 12% CAGR over the past 6 years to A$1.2 billion and secures the majority of revenue over the next
year, with a portion extending as far back as 2029. We recommend a “Buy” on Civmec.


Thai Beverage
Still in good spirits

■ We hosted THBEV’s management in Singapore last week. Management is upbeat on further volume recovery in FY23F with post-Covid reopening.
■ Management aims for further profit growth in FY23F, and is actively pulling cost levers to mitigate input cost pressure and higher SG&A spend.
■ THBEV is focused on organic growth and deleveraging, while carrying out smaller restructuring exercises to improve efficiencies. Maintain Add.


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China Life Insurance
Sacrificing 4Q22 for 1Q23F?

■ 4Q22 NBV deteriorated compared to 3Q22. We think 4Q22’s NBV may have been adversely affected by a heavy focus on 1Q23F sales campaigns.
■ We think monthly premium growth could lag behind peers in mid-late-2023F due to slower renewal premium growth from maturing insurance policies.
■ Reiterate Add rating. TP cut 15% to HK$17. 


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