ANALYSTS SAY: Buy, Sell, Hold (26 Jan)

CGS CIMB

Siam Cement
Weak China demand a toll on 4Q22 EPS

■ SCC’s net profit declined 77% qoq due to the attributable net losses from its chemicals and cement-building material units.
■ We expect SCC’s chemical unit to remain in the red in 1H23F despite China’s reopening.

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Bangkok Dusit Med Service
Strong tailwinds from medical tourists

■ We expect BDMS’s revenues to rise 9-10% yoy for FY23-24F from 23% yoy in FY22F, driven by the resounding return of foreign patients.
■ We expect BDMS to report THB2.6bn core net profit in 4Q22F, flat yoy but down 22% qoq.
■ We reiterate our Hold rating on BDMS with an unchanged THB32 target price (38x FY24F P/E, 0.5 s.d. below its 5-year mean).

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CGS CIMB

Supalai
Low-rise housing remains key focus

■ 4Q22F net profit likely dropped 25.5% qoq and 28.8% yoy to THB2.05bn.
■ SPALI targets presales of THB36bn (+11% yoy) and total revenue of THB36bn (+2.9% yoy) in 2023F.
■ Maintain Add with a slightly lower TP of THB27.0.

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Banking – Singapore
4Q22 Results Preview: Continued Double-Digit NIM Expansion

The pace of NIM expansion has moderated but remains significant at double-digit. DBS and OCBC grew net interest income by a hefty 53% and 49% yoy respectively. Asset quality remains benign. We forecast net profit of S$2,151m for DBS (+54% yoy but -4% qoq) and S$1,510m for OCBC (+55% yoy but -6% qoq). DBS could provide a positive surprise by declaring a special dividend. BUY DBS (Target: S$45.35) and OCBC (Target: S$17.75) for 2023 dividend yields of 4.7%. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.

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Wilmar International (WIL SP)
4Q22 Results Preview: Earnings Could Beat Expectation

Wilmar is scheduled to release its 2H22 results on 21 Mar 23. Based on our 2022 core earnings forecast of US$2.2b, 4Q22 core net profit could be US$450m-460m and again be driven by palm-related operations. However, based on our channel checks, palm downstream margins and volume could come in higher than our expectations. As such, we foresee Wilmar’s 4Q22 core profit beating our and market expectations again.
Maintain BUY. Target price: S$5.50. 

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Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ)
4Q22: Steadfast Recovery, Net Profit To Grow 19% In 2023

4Q22 net profit came in at Rp4.6t (-5.5% qoq/+47% yoy), bringing 2022 net profit to Rp18.3t (+68% yoy), exceeding expectations. Despite the reversal in CoF, BBNI could book 4.7% NIM in 2023, which will be driven by loan repricing, while an improvement in LaR and focus on growth on low-risk segments will support the CoC normalisation. We expect 19% NPAT growth in 2023, which will be mainly driven by a 40bp decline in CoC and high single-digit loan growth. We maintain BUY with a target price of Rp11,200. 

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