ISOTeam (ISO SP)
Business As Usual; Keep BUY
Keep BUY with a new DCF-based SGD0.24 TP from SGD0.31, 100% upside with 4% FY20F (Jun) yield. The bulk of ISOTeam’s business is in Singapore. We understand from the group that it is still business as usual, as projects like the Home Improvement Programme (HIP) are still ongoing. However, with the prevailing market uncertainties, we increase our WACC assumption to 6% from 5.3%, resulting in the new TP.
United Overseas Bank (UOB SP)
Macro Concerns To Weaken Earnings
Stay NEUTRAL with a new GGM-derived SGD20.00 TP from SGD25.20, 9% upside with c.6% yield, based on 0.85x 2020F P/NBV. We lowered our sustainable ROE assumption to 10.3% from 11.2%, as we cut FY20F earnings on lower NIM and higher provision assumptions. Our NIM forecast was lowered due to the 15 Mar cut in the federal fund rate (FFR). Travel restrictions globally due to COVID-19 would slow economies and raise provisioning requirements. However, given UOB’s more conservative lending, it is our preferred pick within the banking sector.
|UOB KAYHIAN||DBS VICKERS|
Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)
State Support Needed To Fend Off Liquidity Crisis
SIA’s steep decline in stock price to a 21-year low reflects on-going concerns over cash burn and ability to meet debt obligations. Barring an announcement of state support, we believe the stock will continue to underperform the FSSTI. If specific rescue measures are made, then SIA could be re-rated upwards toward 0.75x FY21F book value or S$7.80. Target price: S$6.60. Suggested entry level at S$5.70 or 0.5x book value.
US Office SREITs
Attractive American heroes
• The spread of Covid-19 to North America and Europe that could bring about a potential recession has caused US Office SREITs’ share prices to halve; now trading at 0.5x-0.7x P/NAV with 11% to 16% yield
• Limited near-term downside risks supported by low lease expiries in FY2020, no major break clauses and long WALE
• Covid-19 impact may slow down leasing activities and potential acquisitions • With limited history, occupancy fell to c.80% during GFC. Based on our ballpark estimates, a 20% cut in NPI implies 8% to 12% yield at current prices
Check out our compilation of Target Prices