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PHILLIP SECURITIES |
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Real Estate 2020: A Year Of Two Halves
Stay NEUTRAL; Prefer diversified plays. We expect 2020 market performance to be largely similar to 2019, ie volumes staying resilient but with little upside to property prices. With elections likely by end-1H20, we believe buying sentiment will remain cautious, but potentially see a recovery in 2H20, if the outcome results in a favourable mandate for the ruling party vs the previous term. Amidst uncertainties, we prefer players with well diversified exposure and strong recurring income growth – CapitaLand is our Top Pick.
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Phillip 2020 Singapore Strategy A domestic recovery
Review: YTD19, the STI is up 4%. We fell short against the benchmark MSCI Asia Ex-Japan (MAXJ)’s rise of 11% (SGD terms). The STI has underperformed MAXJ in four out of the past five years. We lack the earnings growth and re-rating theme. This has resulted in STI valuations being stuck in a tight range. A new source of fund-flow could be a re-rating trigger. When reviewing sector performance, REITs stood out as the best performer in 2019. We entered 2019 with expectations of two rate hikes. Instead, we faced the “Powell pivot” and experienced three rate cuts in 2019.
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DBS VICKERS |
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Full steam ahead
• First mover advantage leveraging on environmental protection trend and backed by stable recurring revenue • Steam plants expansion buoyed by defensive textile industry • Further RMB2.3b injection into green investments to cement dominant position; Manufacturing & Services (M&S) segment is group’s backbone • Initiate with BUY and DCF-based TP of S$0.81
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Check out our compilation of Target Prices
