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Singapore Economics

Dodging Recession


Escaping a Technical Recession in 3Q

Singapore may have narrowly dodged a technical recession in the third quarter, judging from July data and anecdotal evidence for August. Manufacturing may remain in recession, but services growth likely improved in 3Q. Three reasons for the change in view: [1] frontloading of trade orders, in anticipation of higher US import tariffs; [2] strong ACU (offshore) lending to fund supply chain shifts to ASEAN; and [3] stronger hospitality growth due to Hong Kong protests.


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Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC SP)

Unlikely To Be Distracted By Acquisition Down South


We see higher probability of OCBC emphasising on its north-bound expansion to increase its 20% stake in BON (market cap: S$25.6b), as and when allowed to do so by the authorities in China. It will also deploy capital to support expansion to double PBT from GBA to S$1b by 2023. Bank Permata is smaller than OCBC NISP and has a low ROE of 5.9%. It may not be worth the effort to acquire Bank Permata due to its chequered history. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$14.48.


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LionelLim8.16Check out our compilation of Target Prices

Share Prices

Counter NameLastChange
AEM Holdings2.160-0.020
Avi-Tech Electronics0.410-
Best World Int.1.360-
China Sunsine0.530-
CNMC GoldMine0.265-
CSE Global0.575-
Eagle HTrust USD0.535-
Food Empire0.700-0.005
Golden Energy0.205-
GSS Energy0.1010.004
ISDN Holdings0.225-0.005
JB Foods0.640-
KSH Holdings0.435-
Moya Asia0.0820.002
Nordic Group0.3250.005
Oxley Holdings0.370-0.010
REX International0.1920.011
Sing Holdings0.400-
Straco Corp.0.670-
Sunningdale Tech1.320-0.010
Sunpower Group0.6300.005
The Trendlines0.1200.001
Tiong Seng0.195-
Uni-Asia Group0.7400.005
Yangzijiang Shipbldg1.1600.010

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