ANALYSTS SAY: Buy, Sell, Hold (8 Jan '19)

OCBC

CapitaLand

Joining Shanghai’s most coveted office area

■ CAPL has entered a JV to acquire c.70% of Pufa Tower in Shanghai, China for Rmb2,752m; this will be seeded into a commercial value-add fund.

■ Post-acquisition, CAPL will undertake a comprehensive asset enhancement initiative (AEI) to extract greater value.

■ We maintain our Add call with a TP of S$3.55.

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M1 Ltd: Accept the offer

Konnectivity Pte. Ltd. (Offeror) has despatched the offer document to shareholders for the voluntary conditional general offer of M1. Shareholders have up to 4 Feb 2019 to accept the offer, or such later date(s) as may be announced. The Offeror’s intention is to gain majority control of M1, which we do not think will be too challenging. We do not rule out the possibility of a competing offer from Axiata Group at this stage. In the absence of the above offer, we are of the opinion that M1 shareholders would continue to be exposed to further downside risks in a highly competitive environment. The offer price also comes at a 24.8% premium over our S$1.65 fair value prior to the pre-conditional offer, which we believe to be fair given the headwinds. All considered, we maintain our current fair value of S$2.06 and revise our recommendation from Hold to ACCEPT THE OFFER.

REITS

Strategy: Yield Plays To Remain In Favour

 US Fed’s dovish tone favours REITs. Growing uncertainty over global economic growth and persisting trade tensions have resulted in investors preferring safe haven-yield instruments, which is supportive for REITs. In addition, US Fed chairman Jerome Powell, in his latest statement, noted that the regulator will be more flexible on monetary policy and is in no rush to raise interest rates. The dovish tone is positive for REITs, as one of investors’ key concerns was a sharp spike in interest rates making REITs relatively unattractive. As such, investors’ continued appetite for yields and safe haven instruments is clearly visible, with 10-year US and SG bond yields currently at 2.66%/2.13%, down nearly 60 bps from their 2018 peak.

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Banking – Singapore

A Dovish Twist, Limiting Upside For US Interest Rates

NIM expansion should moderate because the pace of rate hikes will be more gradual in 2019. However, banks have transformed into yield plays, which perform better when upward pressures on interest rates have eased. Our study on mean reversion indicates that the re-rating for DBS due to its management bench strength and benefits from rising interest rates are in the advanced stages. Maintain BUY on DBS and OCBC, but we prefer OCBC. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.

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