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Property Devt & Invt

All eyes on take-up rates


■ Private home prices surged in 1H18; sales/launch volume off to a slower start so far this year.

■ Good sell-through rates and fast asset turn are sector catalysts.

■ Office and hospitality sectors continue to look good.

■ Developers are trading at attractive valuations. Our top picks are UOL, CIT, CCT and CDREIT. Maintain Overweight.


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Property – Singapore

Another Round Of Cooling Measures


Share prices of developers are likely to suffer a knee jerk reaction to the latest residential property cooling measures. Based on previous cooling measures in 2011 and 2013, we see potential worst-case downside of 11-25% for our key stocks. Our current OVERWEIGHT call on the sector is under review.


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Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT SP)

Homecoming, and a placement risk


First acquisition in S’pore in four years; Prefer MINT

MLT’s SGD778m purchase of five logistics properties possibly signals its homecoming and industrial sector recovery. While near-term tenancy risk rises, MLT’s growing logistics ambition suggests longer-term upside from expiring leases. How the deal will be funded is still unclear – we see risk of a placement as it will take time to divest SGD200m of low-yielding assets to free up its balance sheet. As such, this funding gap could create an overhang. We prefer MINT (BUY, TP SGD2.25) for its stronger balance sheet and DPU growth profile.


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Singapore Residential Sector: Sledgehammer to kill a fly


Last evening, the Singapore Government announced that it would raise ABSD and tighten LTV limits, with developers also having to pay an additional non-remittable ABSD on residential properties for housing development. These cooling measures were not in our base case, given that private residential prices have only started to increase by less than 10% since the 2Q17 trough, while the smaller rate of QoQ increase in 2Q18 appeared to have dispelled concerns about a tighter regulatory environment. While we previously argued that the positive outlook presented a buying opportunity in the midst of the sector correction, we no longer believe this to be the case. Referencing the previous comprehensive package of cooling measures introduced in Jan 2013, we note that the FSTREH declined by up to ~28% after approximately 37 months (Feb 2016), with the next day following the announcement closing at -3.0%. Coupled with the current macro uncertainties, near-term sentiment would be highly likely to sour. We expect shares prices of local property developers to see an immediate negative knee-jerk reaction. We downgrade our Singapore residential sector rating from Overweight to NEUTRAL, and will be reviewing our recommendations of the developers under our coverage.





Singapore Coal Monthly

Demand from China still robust



China imports more coal China imports surged: According to Reuters, China’s seaborne coal imports surged by 14% YoY in 1H18, estimating to reach 126.6mn tonnes. Indonesia became the biggest source of imports by delivering 61.8mn tonnes of coal, a jump of 33.5% YoY. Meanwhile, the imported coal from Australia remained flat at 42.8mn tonnes during the period (1H17: 42.6mn tonnes).


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Singapore REITs

Keeping our ears on the ground



• Thai investors return to a “uniquely Singapore” 3-day tour

• Positive feedback on the ground; turning into a landlords' market soon

• Time to re-enter into selective REITs with growth


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LionelLim8.16Check out our compilation of Target Prices

Share Prices

Counter NameLastChange
AEM Holdings1.0700.050
Alliance Mineral0.1960.010
Anchor Resources0.027-
Avi-Tech Electronics0.295-
Best World Int.2.710-
China Sunsine1.310-0.010
CSE Global0.4700.005
Food Empire0.550-
Geo Energy0.187-0.001
Golden Energy0.2500.010
GSS Energy0.1190.001
ISDN Holdings0.210-
KSH Holdings0.520-0.010
Moya Asia0.082-
Nordic Group0.345-0.005
Oxley Holdings0.3400.005
REX International0.0910.002
Sing Holdings0.390-0.005
Sino Grandness0.058-
Straco Corp.0.7600.015
Sunningdale Tech1.6200.050
Sunpower Group0.5500.025
The Trendlines0.0940.004
Tiong Seng0.2750.020
Uni-Asia Group1.1900.010
XMH Holdings0.200-
Yangzijiang Shipbldg1.4600.020

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