ANALYSTS SAY: Buy, Sell, Hold (29 Jan '18)

Viva Industrial Trust (VIT SP)

A Strong Finish… And More?

Updated est.’s post-FY17, reiterate BUY w/TP +5%

We updated our model post-FY17, with 4Q17 DPU at SGD1.86cts, up 5.5% YoY, in line with consensus but ahead of our est. Viva’s key drivers – positive rental reversions at its well-located business park properties (55% of its AUM) – are expected to gain momentum, with recovering industrial sector fundamentals, and improving accessibility to its UE BizHub East asset. We believe investors are awaiting details of possible merger talks given its share suspension last Friday 26 Jan. We raised DPUs (FY17/18E up 2% each) on a stronger rental outlook and rolled forward DDM-based TP to FY18E (WACC: 8.0%, LTG: 1.5%). BUY.

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Tuan Sing Holdings (TSH SP)

4Q17: S$44.9m Revaluation Gains Amidst Bullish Macro Conditions

In 4Q17, TSH reported revaluation gains of S$44.9m, boosting yoy profit growth to 1942%, even as there was a weaker-than-expected blip in Australia earnings that caused core profits to miss expectations. Market bullishness surrounding residential and office recovery continues as 18 Robinson nears completion and TSH looks to launch new projects. We remain confident of TSH’s ability to ride the property upcycle. Maintain BUY with unchanged RNAV-based target price of S$0.71, implying 47.9% upside.

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CDL Hospitality Trusts: A look at risk-reward

Looking ahead, we note that Singapore hotel room supply is expected to grow only +1.2% in 2018, +2.5% in 2019, and +0.6% in 2020. Given the positive RevPAR growth CDLHT registered for its local assets despite the opening of seven hotels in 4Q17, we expect the RevPAR rebound in 2018 to be stronger than we previously forecasted. After adjusting our forecasts (we now have a +8% RevPAR growth for 2018) and increasing our nominal growth rate of dividends in the mature state from 1.5% to 2.0%, our fair value increases from S$1.555 to S$1.60. Nonetheless, after a spectacular 33% rally in the last 12 months, we believe the risk-reward for the REIT is skewed to the downside against the closing price on 26 Jan. CDLHT is currently trading at a FY18F yield of 5.3% as of the closing price on 26 Jan. We downgrade CDLHT from Hold to SELL.

Frasers Logistics & Industrial Trust

1QFY9/18: two thumbs up

■ 1QFY9/18 DPU of 1.80 Scts (+3.4% yoy) was in line with our and Bloomberg consensus expectation, at 26% of our full-year forecast.

■ Portfolio occupancy remained at 99.4%. FLT forward renewed three leases expiring in FY19F (total GLA of 66.7k sqm) with average reversion of -5.1%.

■ FLT has no lack of options. Its ROFR to its sponsor’s projects currently includes 16 assets in Australia and 25 assets in Europe.

■ Our optimistic outlook on FLT is underpinned by the favourable Australian industrial market and its ability to tap FCL’s development pipeline.

■ Maintain Add with higher TP.

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PHILLIP SECURITIES 

 Y Ventures Group Ltd

Monetizing data analytics through e-commerce

SINGAPORE | E-COMMERCE | INITIATION

• 50% p.a. growth in revenue over the next two years from e-commerce sales.

• Data analytic capabilities creating new revenue streams from own branded products and distributorships in consumer products.

• Initiate with BUY and target price of S$0.70. This is based on PE of 30x FY18e.

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