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OCBC UOB

Oil & Gas sector: Awaiting contract wins

 

In end 2014, we sounded caution with our report “Go for quality in 2015”, followed by “Patience needed; expect more trading opportunities” in end 2015. Last year, we mentioned that 2017 could see a recovery in sentiment, especially in 2H17. Indeed, we saw a pickup in share prices of the large caps starting early this year, which took a breather in the middle of the year, readying for another spurt in 3Q17. Looking ahead in 2018, we expect the sector to recover gradually, as oil majors adapt to the lower oil price environment and are better positioned to proceed with final investment decisions. A sustained recovery, however, will only ensue with a continued flow of contract wins. We first turned less negative on SMM in Dec 2016 when we upgraded our rating from Sell to Hold, and later upgraded it to Buy on 23 Feb 2017. KEP was also upgraded to Buy on 22 Feb. On a sector-wide basis, we maintain NEUTRAL given continued unease over the small-mid cap space. Our preferred picks are KEP [BUY; FV: S$8.41] and SCI [BUY; FV: S$3.59], though we note that a faster-than-expected recovery in oil price or contract flows would benefit SMM [BUY; FV: S$2.26] the greatest.

Banking – Singapore

Oct 17 Monthly Statistics: Acceleration In Loans To Businesses

 

Oct 17 saw a slight 0.6ppt mom acceleration in loan growth to 6.8% yoy, driven by stronger 9% yoy growth in loans to businesses. 3-month SOR caught up by 12bp mom and moved to parity with 3-month SIBOR at 1.13%. A third rate hike in December is almost a certainty. Further upward movements in SOR and SIBOR would be positive for NIMs. Our top pick is OCBC, followed by DBS. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.

 

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RHB  UOB

UOB

Rising SIBOR To Drive NIM Higher

 

 

SIBOR has risen, as the market expects the US Fed to hike the FFR in mid-December. The rise in SIBOR is positive for banks’ NIM, including UOB. We forecast FY18 NIM of 1.80% for UOB, wider than FY17F’s 1.77%, and see further NIM upside if the FFR rises faster. In addition, the Jan 2018 implementation of IFRS 9 could be preceded by UOB possibly writing back some of its GP, just like what DBS did in 3Q17. Our new TP, which is pegged to FY18F P/BV (instead of FY17F), is SGD28.88 (from SGD27.50, 11% upside). Maintain BUY.

 

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Property – Singapore 2018

Strategy: Riding The Wave

 

Maintain OVERWEIGHT on property and REITs, preferring stocks with exposure to the residential, hotel and office segments which are expected to outperform as we head deeper into the upcycle. We are cautious on retail and industrial factory and warehouse spaces. City Developments, Wing Tai, CDREIT, CCT and AREIT are our top picks.

 

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LionelLim8.16Check out our compilation of Target Prices




Share Prices

Counter NameLastChange
AEM Holdings3.0700.010
Alliance Mineral0.3500.010
AusGroup0.036-0.001
Avi-Tech Electronics0.460-
Best World Int.1.340-0.020
China Sunsine0.900-0.005
CWG International0.1500.002
DISA Limited0.014-0.001
Dutech Holdings0.340-
Federal Int. (2000)0.400-0.020
Food Empire0.6550.010
Geo Energy0.2550.005
Golden Energy0.385-0.005
GSS Energy0.1680.012
Heeton Holdings0.565-
ISOTeam0.340-
KSH Holdings0.780-0.005
Lian Beng Group0.700-0.010
Miyoshi0.075-0.001
Nordic Group0.5550.015
Oxley Holdings0.625-0.010
REX International0.054-0.001
Riverstone1.030-
Roxy-Pacific0.540-
Serial System0.165-0.005
Sing Holdings0.450-
Sino Grandness0.2050.005
Straco Corp.0.815-0.005
Sunningdale Tech1.8700.010
Sunpower Group0.5100.005
The Trendlines0.1480.001
Tiong Seng0.380-0.015
Trek 2000 Int.0.280-
Uni-Asia Group1.230-
XMH Holdings0.240-
Yangzijiang Shipbldg1.5200.010

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