ANALYSTS SAY: Buy, Sell, Hold (11 Sept 2017)

Health Management International (HMI SP)

Key Marketing Takeaways; Resilient Operations With Strong Earnings Visibility

We continue to like HMI for its resilient operations as its staggered and paced organic expansion at both the Mahkota and Regency hospitals provide strong earnings visibility. Moreover, HMI is riding on a favourable medical tourism outlook, which has contributed to the growth in patient load as well as high-revenue intensive procedures. Beyond organic expansion, we see possibilities for potential ventures in the areas of Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia, which can be in the form of acquisitions or strategic collaborations. Maintain BUY with unchanged TP of S$0.83.

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Singapore Press Holdings Toner low

■ Share price has fallen 22% YTD; but at current level, we think downside risk persists still. Downgrade from Hold to Reduce, with a lower SOP-based TP of S$2.38.

■ Current valuation of 21.7x FY18F P/E expensive against multi-year earnings decline.

■ No longer an attractive dividend play, with little hope for near-term special dividends.

■ Recent Bidadari project win and OVH acquisition could not revive its share price.

■ If we were the new CEO, strategic review could be on the cards but there is impairment risk.

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Telecom Sector: Intensifying competitive landscape

Singapore’s telecom sector reported lower earnings in 2QCY17 due to weaker performances from the under pressure mobile segment. Looking ahead, we expect competition in the Singapore mobile market to intensify with the impending entry of TPG. In addition, local fibre broadband operator MyRepublic announced back in Jul 17 that it plans to launch mobile services in Singapore likely in Oct 17 offering generous mobile data. The increasingly competitive landscape will impact Starhub and M1 more significantly than Singtel due to higher exposure to the market. Hence, on aforementioned reasons, we cut our ARPU assumptions, projecting 14-20% decline over the next five years. However, with the recent steep correction in its share price, we upgrade M1 from SELL to HOLD even as we lower our FV from S$1.75 to S$1.65. For Starhub, on weaker mobile earnings and pending further clarity over the ramp up of its enterprise business, we maintain SELL on lower S$2.30 FV (prev: S$2.40). We remain positive over Singtel’s long-term outlook given its growing presence in the digital space. Hence, reiterate Singtel as our sector top pick with a BUY rating but lower FV of S$4.19. Maintain NEUTRAL on the Telecom sector.