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PHILLIP SECURIITES MAYBANK KIM ENG

Singapore Property

No significant boost expected from recent easing

SINGAPORE | REAL ESTATE (DEVELOPERS) | UPDATE

What is the news?

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has announced changes in measures regarding the purchase and sale of properties in Singapore. These measures will be effective from 11 March 2017 and include:

1. TDSR no longer apply to mortgage equity withdrawal loans with an LTV ratio of 50 percent and below

What is the new rule? From 11 March 2017, MAS has revised the TDSR framework and it will no longer apply to homebuyers with mortgage equity withdrawal loans with an LTV ratio of 50 percent and below. According to MAS, the revision came from feedback of existing homeowners stating that the current TDSR framework has limited their flexibility to monetise their properties in their retirement years.

 

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Singapore Property

Surprise Review of Property Cooling Measures

Potential positives from change in policy measures

We believe surprise changes to the property cooling measures have positive implications for Singapore’s residential market. In particular, relief from changes to the Seller’s Stamp Duties could nudge the marginal buyer concerned with potential penalties to buy a new property. This could have positive impact on sales volumes and prices. However, we believe the market should curb their enthusiasm as home buying demand will remain constrained by the ABSD, LTV and TDSR requirements. At the margin, we see upside risks to our home sales volume and price assumptions. CDL and Wing Tai have the biggest exposure to Singapore’s residential market.

 

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 CIMB

Health Management International

Healthy vital signs

■ HMI is one of the top 5 private hospital operators (by number of licensed beds) in Malaysia, with 10% market share of the nation’s medical tourism.

■ Poised to benefit from rising medical tourism, ageing demographics and increasing insurance penetration in Malaysia, in terms of higher average bill size and patients.

■ Full consolidation of minority interests in both of its hospitals would create an enlarged entity to tap into wider financing options and M&A opportunities.

■ Initiate coverage with Add and a DCF-derived TP of S$0.81 (7% WACC, 3% LTG).

■ Currently trades at 50% discount to CY18F industry average of 19.1x EV/EBITDA.

 

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 OCBC  DBS VICKERS

SG Residential Sector:  Carefully calibrated set of policy changes

The Singaporean authorities announced last Friday that they have relaxed some property cooling measures relating to the seller’s stamp duty (SSD) and the total debt servicing ratio framework (TDSR). On the other hand, a new stamp duty, the Additional Conveyance Duty (ACD), will be levied for the transactions of residential properties held in property holding entities (PHE) via share sales. On balance, we believe these set of changes will be marginally supportive of still-declining home prices. In our view, the timing of these reversals was not a complete surprise. As we have been highlighting to our clients over the last few months, the Singapore government has over the last three cycles a near unbroken record of actively reviewing property legislations against its goals of price stability, and historically began reversing curbs after homes prices had dipped between 8%-17% from the peak (see OCBC report: “Severe dip in home prices unlikely”, 9 Dec 2016). We are currently down 11% from the last peak over the last 13 quarters. With these latest sets of measures, we now adjust our forecast for physical prices to decline to 1% - 5% in 2017 (versus our previous forecast for a 3% - 7% decline). Our top picks are UOL Limited [BUY, FV: S$7.30], Wing Tai [BUY, FV: S$2.37] and Wheelock Properties (SG) [BUY, FV: S$2.27].

Del Monte Pacific

US operations still not up to par

Maintain HOLD, improvement in US operations and deleveraging are key catalysts.

We maintain our HOLD recommendation on DMPL with a revised TP of S$0.36. While its Asia Pacific operations are posting strong growth, we believe firmer performance from its US operations (DMFI) and the fruition of its deleveraging plans are keys to the re-rating of the counter. 3Q17 core earnings in line, helped by tax credits. Del Monte Pacific Limited’s (DMPL) 3Q17 core earnings were within expectations, helped by tax credits. Headline net profit was at US$8.5m, showing a reversal from loss of US$4.8m last year. Group revenue improved marginally by 0.3% to US$604m, helped by Asia Pacific operations, partially offset by its US operations. EBIT was up by 92% to US$28.4m. In 3Q16, there was a one-off expense amounting to US$12.4m. Excluding that, recurring EBIT would still have grown by 25% y-o-y. That said, the recurring operating profit was behind our expectations largely arising from a weaker-than-expected performance from its US operations.

 

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LionelLim8.16Check out our compilation of Target Prices




Share Prices

Counter NameLastChange
AEM Holdings3.0700.010
Alliance Mineral0.3500.010
AusGroup0.036-0.001
Avi-Tech Electronics0.460-
Best World Int.1.340-0.020
China Sunsine0.900-0.005
CWG International0.1500.002
DISA Limited0.014-0.001
Dutech Holdings0.340-
Federal Int. (2000)0.400-0.020
Food Empire0.6550.010
Geo Energy0.2550.005
Golden Energy0.385-0.005
GSS Energy0.1680.012
Heeton Holdings0.565-
ISOTeam0.340-
KSH Holdings0.780-0.005
Lian Beng Group0.700-0.010
Miyoshi0.075-0.001
Nordic Group0.5550.015
Oxley Holdings0.625-0.010
REX International0.054-0.001
Riverstone1.030-
Roxy-Pacific0.540-
Serial System0.165-0.005
Sing Holdings0.450-
Sino Grandness0.2050.005
Straco Corp.0.815-0.005
Sunningdale Tech1.8700.010
Sunpower Group0.5100.005
The Trendlines0.1480.001
Tiong Seng0.380-0.015
Trek 2000 Int.0.280-
Uni-Asia Group1.230-
XMH Holdings0.240-
Yangzijiang Shipbldg1.5200.010

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