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Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp

Tough Operating Environment weighs on Performance


 4Q16 PATMI of SGD789mn missed our 4Q16 estimate of SGD951mn by 17%.

 Surprise came from poorer performance by the life assurance business and higher-thanexpected provisions in 4Q16. But a flat 4Q16 net interest income q-o-q growth was in line with our expectations.

 Downgrade to "REDUCE” with a lower target price of S$8.48 (previously S$8.55), based at unchanged 0.95x FY17F book value (excluding preference shares).


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Thai Beverage: Expect return to stability

Thai Beverage PLC’s (ThaiBev) 1QFY17 results were within our expectations amid a weak consumer environment. Looking ahead, promotions will go on as initially planned, particularly as consumer sentiment returns. As such, we are keeping our assumptions largely unchanged. In addition, we understand that there has been no significant change to market share for both Spirits and Beer, while market share for NAB’s major brands (Oishi, Est, Crystal) generally improved. With regards to competition for Beer, management believes there has been minimal impact and will continue to work on initiatives to maintain its market share. Against a steady economic backdrop coupled with planned A&P (while 2QFY17 may still reflect some weakness), we expect overall earnings to return to stability. Maintain BUY with fair value estimate of S$1.01.


CapitaLand (CAPL SP)

4Q16: Profits Rising In The East

CapitaLand posted better-than-expected results. Overall operating PATMI grew 55% yoy, boosted by contributions from Singapore and China residential projects. CapitaLand’s focus remains on core markets Singapore and China, despite management noting headwinds in these markets. Expansion of footprint in growth market Vietnam is also likely. Maintain BUY and target price of S$4.05, pegged at a 20% discount to our RNAV of S$5.06/share.


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Thai Beverage

Key 1Q17 analyst briefing takeaway: consumption appears to be improving

■ Stellar profits in the beer segment were mostly driven by improvements in gross margins, which should be sustainable for at least the next year.

■ Overall consumption did shrink in the quarter, but market share for both spirits and beer remained largely unchanged.

■ Management’s tone hinted at a recovery in consumption. Maintain Add.


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Singapore Finance Companies

MAS relaxes rules on Finance Companies

 MAS relaxes rules on finance companies on some business restrictions and liberalises shareholding policy

 Aimed at providing alternative financing options to SMEs to support the economy; prospects to finance companies are positive

 Hong Leong Finance (HLF), Sing Investments & Finance (SIF), and Singapura Finance (SBD) are three listed finance companies; currently trading at c. 0.7x P/BV; potential to re-rate on new prospects of M&A and growth

 These rules are expected to be neutral to banks as a different customer profile is served


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LionelLim8.16Check out our compilation of Target Prices

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