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Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust

No surprises

■ 3Q/9MFY17 DPU broadly in line, making up 24%/72% of our FY17 DPU forecasts.

■ FW continues to enjoy positive rental reversion, recording 14% in 3Q.

■ GW impacted by higher taxes and VAT, partly offset by better performance at SP.

■ Debt maturity extended to 3.93 years; 87% of FY17 distribution income hedged.

■ Maintain Add with an unchanged target price of S$1.13.


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CapitaLand Retail China Trust

Declining rental reversions on back of slowing tenant sales

 Weak RMB dragged down gross revenue by 2.7%. (Otherwise up 4.5% in RMB terms on comparable mall basis, excluding the new 5% VAT expensed from revenue from 1 May 2016).

 CapitaMall Xizhimen’s -19.7% rental reversion in 4Q16 due to strategic entry of two new lifestyle retail concept tenants who will pay lower base rental versus the outgoing fashion tenants.

 46% of debt to be re-financed in 2017, 30% of which is a bridging loan taken out this year for the acquisition.

 Outlook for rental reversion to remain in single digit.

 Downgrade from ACCUMULATE to NEUTRAL with lowered DDM-derived target price of S$1.44 (from $1.62).


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Aviation – Singapore

3QFY17 Results Preview: Expect A Lacklustre Quarter

SIA and SATS will report 3QFY17 results on 7 Feb 17 and 9 Feb 17 respectively. We expect a 36% yoy decline in net profit for SIA due to lower pax loads and yields, and SIAEC to report lower yoy operating profit. Barring a sharp increase in staff costs, SATS could register a 4-6% yoy rise in operating profit amid lower revenue growth. Should SATS show improved cost control or operating leverage, this would have positive implications for future earnings growth. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.


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Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust:

Dip in DPU in-line with expectations

Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust (MGCCT) reported a 4.1% YoY dip in its 3QFY17 DPU to 1.778 S cents on the back of a slight 0.5% decline in gross revenue to S$87.8m and 1.5% fall in net property income to S$71.4m. However, results were within our expectations. Operationally, Festival Walk and Sandhill Plaza were both fully occupied, while Gateway Plaza saw a healthy boost in its occupancy rate to 96.9% (+6.4 ppt QoQ), as at 31 Dec 2016. All three of its assets achieved positive rental reversions. In terms of financial position, MGCCT’s gearing ratio crept up to 40.5%, versus 39.9% as at 30 Sep 2016. However, average all-in cost of debt was lowered after its refinancing exercise. Given a steeper yield curve environment and MGCCT’s higher aggregate leverage ratio, we raise our cost of equity assumption from 8.2% to 8.5%. Consequently, our fair value is lowered from S$1.15 to S$1.08. Maintain BUY.



Keppel Corporation

Hit by Impairment

Reiterate HOLD with TP of S$6.00. The acceleration of oil rebalancing following OPEC’s production cut should drive the recovery in rig demand and delivery of newbuild rigs on order. Property, which accounts for 50-70% of the group’s bottom line, should continue to enjoy promising property sales in China and Vietnam, providing some cushion to the moderated O&M income and support our estimate of DPS of 20-24 Scts (3-4% dividend yield) for FY17-18F based on 40% payout ratio. Our TP is lifted to S$6.00 as we roll over valuation to FY17 and imputed valuation for Keppel Capital.


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LionelLim8.16Check out our compilation of Target Prices

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