Hey 'abb" -- 7 months ago you wrote ... My targets include HIAP HOE (51 C), WORLD PRECISION (49 C), TECHNICS O&G (88 C), DUTY FREE INTENATIONAL (33 C).


Cool. the stocks are up nicely, except for World Precision, still slightly below yr 49 cent buy price.  U still holding all of them?  I have 1 overlap with yrs -- Hiap Hoe, which I bought at 47 cents. Holding for more than a year and now seeing 64 cents. I am kind of rational and refuse to let it go yet because the RNAV is around $1.30. No harm just holding it as the 2 hotels at Zhongshan Park are now up. New recurring revenue for Hiap Hoe, and who knows maybe they can be sold at a big profit. 

Be greedy when people are fearful & be fearful when everyone is greedy.

You hear this famous saying , it is from WB.

But when to be greedy, and when to be fearful?

It is about timing the market, but to time market is not so difficult, because we can make simple observation roughly when ,we can never buy at the very bottom, but we can be sure we buy at one of the low will be good enough.

Likewise, no one can sell at the top,

It is the emotion that is difficult to make a buy, when everything is so pessimistic at the bottom.

Because you think tomorrow will be even cheaper.

can you tell a few sign that market are near bottom,??

I dont need to elaborate here, most likely u know, like stop loss, but it is the same things that is the real obstacle.

The word is "EMOTION", try to be less emotional is the trick.

it is this thing that make us fail when the time come.

Sound simple but hard to put to practice.

but only if you try.It work

Johny is right, no doubt about it. But what if you are wrong??? You got lot more to lose.

Look , i do not encoursge selling till Q4, let me make myself clear, because i am always bullish till Q4 or earlier Oct(see my previous posting)., in fact, on the contrary, i encourage people to buy and long now and hold till Q4 to sell,,I am only bearish come 2013.or touch wood come ealry October.(not likely)

So what if cheongwee is wrong??? I said only when your long vestment go down 20% , then you do the stop loss, if it can go down 20% that will be a crash,no longer can classified as correction, am i right??? If it go down 20% then sell with confident.

But what if i am right??? your stock got more to go down, as we saw in 2008/9, You see if you have not got a stop loss then, within days it drop a stone, such that 3 days later, you sell also meaningless, no point selling, since it have gone more down 50%!!!.

You know if it drop 50%, it take 100% increase to break even, if it go down 20%( my suggested cut loss) u only need a 25% increase to break even. A 100% take a long time to come because of extreme pessimism in the market. But a 25% is easier to realise when market turn up.

But u said my counter are blues, so what? blues or white , all will be black as fund bailout, redemption take place, pessimism rule, who care blue or white. U don;t sell, other sell, forcing the price lower.

Nobody can tell the future, you are right on, that is why it is even more important to have a stop loss to protect yourself.

Stop loss is just like an insurance, you bought insurance to protect yourself, not because you want an accident to happen, so u can make a claim , right?

Likewise, is a stop loss, it is to protect your investment.

You go tour, u bought travel insurance, that is correct, So u bought share, u must have an insurance also, and that insurance is a 20% stop loss, for your long.

Take action only when vestment go down 20%, and fast, do not hestitate.

But many again will hope again hope and hold till cow come home, and too late. Always the case, because , ppl said i dont want to loss, paper loss is better than realise the loss.

You are wrong, a loss is a loss, irrespective of whether paper or real, both are real losses.

Ppl think stop loss, is loss, because it have a word there "loss"

It is not a real loss, it is just a withdraw to the side to live another and fight another day, if your capital is withhold by market, then when opportunity come, you got no much fund to buy cheap

It is like the enemy is too strong, we retreat first, then recuperate strongly and then fight again, when opportunity arise,insist of staying and fight a lossing battle that end up tragic and sad.

Look at the Vietcong, this is how they won the war against the mighty American. Retreat and attack,

I am on guerilla mode, hope you are, we can overcome this mighty market and win.

May all be well, and happy. I wish you well. Hope there are no offence, here.

Asian stocks sprang up.....European stocks are running.

Life in the stock market is always full of surprises when you least expect them. That's why predictions by Cheongwee and any others are taken lightly by me. Who really knows the future of the market?

I just buy and hold what I luv.

Abb - This joker reporter knows exactly when Greece will leave Eurozone ( 1-1-2013 ) while even Merkel or Hollande don’t. Then in last para reporter said maybe 50 to 70% but will also depend on coming Greek election. Even she is confused LoL.

Here is a Big One for you, relaxing.

Published May 24, 2012

Dow Jones Newswires

LONDON – Greece will leave the euro zone on Jan. 1 2013 and its new currency will immediately fall by 60% against the euro, unleashing a sizeable and unavoidable wave of contagion across Europe, Citigroup said late Wednesday.

In a note to clients, the world's second-largest currency trading bank said the consequences of a Greek exit--or "Grexit"--would accelerate strains in the European banking system and probably force the European Central Bank to restart its long-term refinancing operations and halve its interest rates to 0.5%.

"We expect that Grexit will be followed by a series of policy responses aiming to prevent a domino-style collapse of the banking system and escalating economic disruption," Citigroup economists said in the note.

Citigroup said the probability of Greece leaving was now between 50-75% and added that a Greek exit would become its base case unless next month's elections stabilised the situation.

eva.szalay@dowjones.com

Abb – ya, it does sound like a cliché LoL.  I was half cashed up before the recent French/Greek elections and I am excited to be able to buy good stocks at discounted prices. In fact I am allocating  more fresh funds as I think the Eurozone will somewhat stablised  by end June.  I have started accumulating and hopefully will complete within few weeks as it’s difficult to time the bottom. Eg the market can turn anytime if  they agree on Eurobond roadmap.

I  missed out on the great ’87 Dow crash , but I have lived through the ’97 Asian Financial Crisis and ’07 US Subprime fiasco. During these crisis, S’pore private property prices dropped by a third with retrenchment everywhere. Over time, the index recovered so if you hold solid stocks with cash you can afford, why worry. Best is to stay away from S- Chips ( I think only abt 10% have potential or are well run? ) and definitely no speculative pennies.  Stick with large/mid caps with attractive 2013/14 PER  as they will be the first to rebound when market turns. My views only.   

relaxing -- You talked about 'slowly accumulating'. Sounds like my neighbour this morning --- first thing he said was, "hey opportunity to buy hor? stocks look cheap."

Kevin Scully also said the same thing last Friday >>

Stocks as an asset class based on current earnings forecasts are cheap with many stock markets trading near the low end of their trading range......

Bottom line, no need to panic when markets fall - view it as a buying opportunity - take the time now to identify which stocks and what levels you want to BUY and wait patiently.

My gut feel is that investors who have lived through the last 4 or 5 years at least, now recognise that crashes are the time to buy. Get ready your bullets! Choose your targets well!

My targets include HIAP HOE (51 C), WORLD PRECISION (49 C), TECHNICS O&G (88 C), DUTY FREE INTENATIONAL (33 C).

Abb, agree that we shoud be flexible. Last Oct, the Eurozone was abt to collapse ( though  PIIGS problems  were known abt one yr earlier, unlike ‘07 subprime which even caught rating agencies off guard )  and ppl did not know if US will double dip. Today US corps are recording great profits/dividends, improve housing starts etc and EU has LTRO, banks have written off most  Greek debts etc.  

I think the recent Greek/French elections are good excuse to trigger correction. The markets can’t keep going up and May mth is perfect , just after US 1Q corp. results.  I think the news ahead will be terrible in most days until the US 2Q corp. results early July when the  news may miraculously be sunny again.  This is good chance to slowly accumulate large/mid caps which have dropped a lot. Be prepared  for shorties too . My views only.

Greenrookie, It's good to have a clear idea why we do things as that enables us to sleep better at night. In my many years of investing, I learnt many lessons. One of them is, stay nimble, stay flexible, because the market is too complex, even individual stocks are too complex in real life.
They can go in a slightly diff direction, or in a significantly diff direction, or in a completely diff direction from what we expected (based on our rational analysis).

A stock which I liked a lot went from 25 cents all the way to above $1 in 2 years, then came slipping down over the past 2 years to just 20 over cents.

Yeah, have a good laugh. Or maybe you can also share a similar experience

Well, I am not surprised, technical rebound always happen after a long sell down. Has anything fundemental changed? Lets revisit my concerns:

1) Greece exit : From now till 17 June, bound to be more volality. It seems an Greece exit is inevitable. Whether a not, they exit, we can't tell for sure, but one thing is for sure, no matter what assurances the Trokia says, they have no powers over the elections results. Also, assume now that the Trokia and SYRIZA／or NEW democrats managed to have a deal, it will definitely be a watered down deal, allowing some leeway in asuerity measures or deficient targets, what will PIIGS nations do then? Also ask for the same, does seems like a slippery slope to me.

2)Clear strength from US and CHina/ or clear intervention:

Well, economics picture might change anytime, but thus far, its still unclear. However, if US and china stimulate the economy strongly, it could be good for the stocks too. But, i seriously do not think anything will take place soon. First, reservation of ammo for Greece crisis. Second, with the US election coming, I don't think congress can pass anything. Fed could do another QE, but just not so soon. For CHina, An ad-hoc reduction of reserve ratio should not be much a boost because market has been expecting them for ages, unless it comes fast and furious with cut in interest rate, but with China going through leadership transistion, I doubt they will want to risk inflation figures running amok. I however feel that the flooding of easy money will happen when GREECE DOES EXIT, everyone will be in crisis fighting mode then.

3) Corrections of 10% or more happens.

Well, YTD a meaningful correction (>5%) has finally happens, but not a deep correction. 

I might be wrong, but I stick to my plan since nothing has changed, except the correction of more than 5%. If all is good and steady, I am still rather heavily invested, will be happy too. =)

Surprise!
Dow up 135 points.
China may soon announce stimulus actions to revive economic growth

greenrookie, indeed the times are uncertain and it's a great idea to go defensive and raise cash. How will Greek drama play out, I am not too confiden t of that either. Just a little thought -- markets always have a surprise or 2 in store

STI corrected close to 10%.

Looking at 

HPHT, yield close to 9%. Yes dividends might rise or fall, but this is 1 blue chip trust. An hong kong equivalent of PSA. Looking to accumulate if price fall further to around 85 cents SGD

Cambrdge REIT, look to accumulate if price fall below 50 cents

UMS,looking to accumulate at 34 cents cum dividends.

Buying back Lippo if it fall below my initial purchase price of 36 cents.

Singpost, singtel, starhub, CMA on my radar too.

WIll be looking only at REITS/ Trusts this time round, speculative s-chip or penny will be off limits until clearer picture emerged.

Cambridge and Lippo has no/ low fiancing needs till 2014, HPHT for its leader position, companies i think i can sleep well with. Well UMS slighly more risky, but weightage super low, so no problem.

The million dollar question, will Greece exit Euro? If it does, will it be a Lehman 2.0 event?

The effects will definitely be bigger than Lehman, given the exposure of spain and other european countries exposure to  Greece. Also governements has not much fiscal and monetary leeway to stimulate economy. 1 key difference, while lehman caught many off guard, many were preparing for Greece exit this time.

Thats' why i increase my cash holding. So instead of just 1 round of accumulating exercise, I can have 2 this year. If after correction of around 20% happens this year, I can still accumulate.

Just my thoughts.

Let me guess -- the profitable counter is a speculative one, rather than a solid blue chip.

Staying out of the market during this time is a logical thing to do for many investors. However, it depends also on your risk appetite and the specific stocks in yr port.

i sold off 1 profitable counter to increase my cash holdings to increase my warchest.

reasons:

Grecce factor- Uncertanity will provide the wall if not the drag on equity markets. Greece might run out of money by June according to 1 article in bloomberg, can't see how IMF and Euro countries / Troika will give them the money in this state.  

France - Gremany statemate- Unlikely, but a spanner in the works to increase volality and uncertainity

No meaningful correction YTD. Meaning market have not factored in the consequences of the above happening, messy default by Greeece. Maybe it won't happen, but i prepare for the worst, if the price is right, i might offload more counters.

Buy back when:

Clearer picture emerge from Europe./ or the worst happen and market factored that in. Should be a fall of more than 15% in that case.

Clear strength in US and China.

Correction of around 10% happens.

If market continues to stay resilient without any of the above happening, be patient and stay at the sideline

Just my own view to crystallise my thoughts